EPS 2015 预计收购完成会达到 27.48. （收购完毕之后，假设没有OSKP & PJD股东转换股票或者拿现金），不过OSKP & PJD 贡献利益预计是下半年开始。明年开始给予全年盈利。当然希望越多OSKP & PJD股东转换股票或者拿现金），这样对OSK给予更多的EPS增长。
PE 给予保守的 9， 合理价2.47。 （建筑由于风险较高给予PE 8，马来西亚银行股一般PE12， RHB 给予PE10，平均起来是9）
加上special dividend 0.15 和 warrant 估计 0.10 。
给予的合理价/Fair Value Target Price是 RM2.72.
以目前2.21 的价格，return 还会有23.2%，给予买入指标。
以股息来算，目前除权后的价格为1.96，每一年派息0.075，DY是3.82%，还算不错，高过 定存，下跌风险也是很少，很好的支撑。
看好2016年会有一大片前途。那时会在给予目标价。虽然许多人不理解与误解等，不过就让业绩来证明吧。
参考：
Bursa Dummy 给予的目标价为 RM2.39 - RM2.95
天兄给予 的目标价为RM3.18.
Friday, May 15, 2015
Thursday, May 14, 2015
亮眼的OSKP 成绩 + OSK 破
盈利增加了大约一倍， 主要是因为 disposal of freehold land to PR1MA Corporation Malaysia (“PR1MA”) and higher level of construction work carried out during the period under review for on-going projects such as Pan’gaea in Cyberjaya, Mirage Residence in Kuala Lumpur, Atria SOFO Suites in Damansara Jaya and Bandar Puteri Jaya in Sungai Petani。
所以一次性把土地卖了，所以这一季的盈利会这么高。这么高的收益，还是振奋人心的。
The Group’s Phase 3 of the Pan’gaea project in Cyberjaya, Eclipse is almost sold out as take up rate reached 98% while Emira Residence in Shah Alam have achieved sales of 75%.想不到这么畅销。
根据官方统计，Damansara Jaya 的Atria Shopping Gallery会在5月尾开张，希望早日开张带，带来可观的永久持续租金。
In its 2014 annual report, the company noted tenancy at the Atria Shopping Gallery had reached close to 80%.
The new Atria has 500,000 sq ft of net lettable area, and is expected to house over 250 shops together with 1,700 parking bays.
Earnings contribution will commence likely in the financial year ending 2016.
By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com | April 17, 2015 : 2:27 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR (Apr 17): OSK Property Holdings Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) group managing director and chief executive officer Tan Sri Ong Leong Huat conceded that the group had held back some launches last year amid a slower property market as the company waited for better timing to unveil its products.
But Ong said the group would maintain RM1 billion worth of launches, at least for the next one or two years to sustain earnings. About 20% to 30% of the GDV would be from the ongoing Sungai Petani development in Kedah.
"The group will try not to hold land for too long as it will burden the cash flow. I know the industry often views us as having comparatively lower sales.
"But what is the point of boosting our sales for low profit? We focus very much on delivering essential value to the group," he told reporters after OSK Property's annual general meeting here today.
OSK Property has a 640ha (1,600 acre) land bank scattered across the Klang Valley, and Sungai Petani, Kedah. Ong said the land bank could generate a gross development value of some RM7 billion.
According to Ong, slowing property transactions were good signs as it signified the industry "is not getting overheated."
He also said capex for land acquisition this year is RM100mil.
“Our gearing is low - about 0.14 times. So, we are comfortable with this, and allows us to take advantage of opportunities.”
Ong reiterated that the company’s policy was not to hold land for the long term.
“Generally speaking, we don’t want to hold land for 10 years.
“We want quick turnarounds.”
He also pointed out that the company had an undeveloped land bank of 1,600 acres with RM7bil in GDV.
所以一次性把土地卖了，所以这一季的盈利会这么高。这么高的收益，还是振奋人心的。
The Group’s Phase 3 of the Pan’gaea project in Cyberjaya, Eclipse is almost sold out as take up rate reached 98% while Emira Residence in Shah Alam have achieved sales of 75%.想不到这么畅销。
根据官方统计，Damansara Jaya 的Atria Shopping Gallery会在5月尾开张，希望早日开张带，带来可观的永久持续租金。
In its 2014 annual report, the company noted tenancy at the Atria Shopping Gallery had reached close to 80%.
The new Atria has 500,000 sq ft of net lettable area, and is expected to house over 250 shops together with 1,700 parking bays.
Earnings contribution will commence likely in the financial year ending 2016.
On- Going Project
Mirage by the lake - Cyberjaya
Pan’gaea
The Vale II
Almira 28
Sutera Square
Zaria
而日后会发展：
Emira
前些时段的新闻稿：
OSK Property maintains RM1b launches amid slower market – CEO Ong Leong Huat
By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com | April 17, 2015 : 2:27 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR (Apr 17): OSK Property Holdings Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) group managing director and chief executive officer Tan Sri Ong Leong Huat conceded that the group had held back some launches last year amid a slower property market as the company waited for better timing to unveil its products.
But Ong said the group would maintain RM1 billion worth of launches, at least for the next one or two years to sustain earnings. About 20% to 30% of the GDV would be from the ongoing Sungai Petani development in Kedah.
"The group will try not to hold land for too long as it will burden the cash flow. I know the industry often views us as having comparatively lower sales.
"But what is the point of boosting our sales for low profit? We focus very much on delivering essential value to the group," he told reporters after OSK Property's annual general meeting here today.
OSK Property has a 640ha (1,600 acre) land bank scattered across the Klang Valley, and Sungai Petani, Kedah. Ong said the land bank could generate a gross development value of some RM7 billion.
According to Ong, slowing property transactions were good signs as it signified the industry "is not getting overheated."
He also said capex for land acquisition this year is RM100mil.
“Our gearing is low - about 0.14 times. So, we are comfortable with this, and allows us to take advantage of opportunities.”
Ong reiterated that the company’s policy was not to hold land for the long term.
“Generally speaking, we don’t want to hold land for 10 years.
“We want quick turnarounds.”
He also pointed out that the company had an undeveloped land bank of 1,600 acres with RM7bil in GDV.
看
到这么优雅的房子真的是流口水。很快的，OSK就会拥有大约73.6%的OSKP，成为OSK的囊中物了, 以后OSKP将成为OSK的cash cow
之一，估计EPS of OSKP 对OSK的贡献至少有 0.06，让OSK更有能力的运用他们的cash,
不需要在大量借钱来给dividend。OSK越来越像一颗宝石了。
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Matrix 强力针
虽然学校和俱乐部处于亏钱状态，不过我相信很快也能帮公司赚取一小部分的盈利。 公司预计未来3-5年 学校和俱乐部会贡献10%的盈利。本人是蛮看好的，无论房子经济好不好， 学校和俱乐部还是会对盈利有一点帮助。
回顾之前的文章，真是看好未来的发展。现在很多发展公司都在弄township 这个概念，比如 sunway 就达到了。
Matrix Concepts Expects Double-digit Growth
- The company’s property projects in Bandar Sri Sendayan (BSS) are expected to flourish in to a town centre, named Sendayan Icon Park, upon completion in seven to eight years. With 116 acres, there are ideas to develop a shopping mall, commercial units such as shophouses, a convention centre, a hospitality hotel, residential units and a medical facility.
- The medical facility — which will be built in BSS — will be retained by the firm to generate recurring income. The group also sees significant strides in value of the BSS township if it continues to garner notable names in the education space, such as KDU University College.
http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2015/04/27/stocks-in-focus-my-matrix-concepts-pavilion-reit-ql-resources-%E2%80%93-270415/
看来今年的双位数成长是势在必行了。去年全年盈利RM182，611 k , 今年首季就RM 115，449，下面3季节放缓我也不会太紧张了。
至 oskp & pjd 的股东：收购案-股东们的选择权
面对目前的收购案，小股东们有3个选择，
(a) 什么都不做，继续持有
(b) 换osk股 (1OSKP 换1OSK，5PJD换4OSK
(c) 拿现金。（OSKP RM1.95，PJD RM1.56）
而如果收购案转换前持有OSK会拥有RM0.15 的特别股息和 4OSK送 1 warrant。
如果你想使用 （b ) 或者 （c) 可是不懂如何选择，那么请看下方假设性：
如果你预计OSK的股价在转换后可以达到高过RM1.85，那么你应该大胆选择换股。那么转换前的价格预计是 RM2.13以上 （RM2.13- 0.15 特别股息- 0.12/4 假设性 warrant 价格）。
那么所以如果你预计OSK的股价一直是往下的 （会到RM1.85 以下），那么你就应该选择拿现金，如果对OSK有兴趣，那么就用现金买OSK。这样可以以更低的成本买到。
收购案建议了半年也还没有official 的 announcement, 真的是苦了oskp & pjd 的股东们。希望快点尘埃落定吧，无论是成功还是失败，毕竟时间成本是很重要的。
(a) 什么都不做，继续持有
(b) 换osk股 (1OSKP 换1OSK，5PJD换4OSK
(c) 拿现金。（OSKP RM1.95，PJD RM1.56）
而如果收购案转换前持有OSK会拥有RM0.15 的特别股息和 4OSK送 1 warrant。
如果你想使用 （b ) 或者 （c) 可是不懂如何选择，那么请看下方假设性：
如果你预计OSK的股价在转换后可以达到高过RM1.85，那么你应该大胆选择换股。那么转换前的价格预计是 RM2.13以上 （RM2.13- 0.15 特别股息- 0.12/4 假设性 warrant 价格）。
那么所以如果你预计OSK的股价一直是往下的 （会到RM1.85 以下），那么你就应该选择拿现金，如果对OSK有兴趣，那么就用现金买OSK。这样可以以更低的成本买到。
收购案建议了半年也还没有official 的 announcement, 真的是苦了oskp & pjd 的股东们。希望快点尘埃落定吧，无论是成功还是失败，毕竟时间成本是很重要的。
Monday, May 11, 2015
Mitra warrant 转换
短短2个月时间，大约5分之一的 warrant -c 已经被转换成母股了。如果2015年的profit 没有增加，那么EPS就会 dilute 2.04%了。公司估计取得RM 7,296k ，估计部分会用来还债来减低利息付款，其余的现金将拿来继续发展。如果30%用来还债，估计一年可以节省RM76k 的利息 （Assumption borrowing cost @ 3.5%)。
估计日后会有更多的转换，如果全部warrant -c 转换完毕，那么公司股本会扩大最多12%。加上日后的ESOS，股本会扩大的更快。不过我认为管理层是有能力盈利增长过于所扩大的股本。
敬请期待管理层的未来发展。
估计日后会有更多的转换，如果全部warrant -c 转换完毕，那么公司股本会扩大最多12%。加上日后的ESOS，股本会扩大的更快。不过我认为管理层是有能力盈利增长过于所扩大的股本。
敬请期待管理层的未来发展。
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